There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Jason Heyward Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. by Retrosheet. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. Support FanGraphs. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Is Jason Heyward Being Properly Valued? | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Some call it a sweeper. Fantasy Fallout: With Gavin Lux Out, Could A Sleeper Emerge? But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Braves news: Surprise candidate emerges for potential rotation spot Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. Hows it going to go? The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Donate to FanGraphs. - Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. His 2012 projections are strong While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. by Handedness. Jason Heyward Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Just ask Jason Heyward. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Throw caution to the wind, even. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Thats just how it goes. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. . But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Jason Heyward - Graphs - WAR - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Juan Soto already benefiting big from new MLB rule and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Mining the News (3/2/23) | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Gift a Membership. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. . Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. The Fascinating Jason Heyward Contract | FanGraphs Baseball Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game thread - True Blue LA and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. fangraphs.com 1d. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Signup . Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. . Forget about everything else. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. His average ranking is 7.5. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. $8? Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Hes still really young Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. by Retrosheet. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Jason Heyward - Play Logs - 2022 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Our premise is that their bad (or Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Jason Heyward - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). by Retrosheet. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Why Jason Heyward's New $184 Million Contract Is A Steal Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Jason Heyward, The Next Great Free Agent | FanGraphs Membership But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Atlanta Braves Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors - Part 276 Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. But the power was largely absent. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. by Retrosheet. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Im not all that mad about it. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Jason Heyward Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com 1 day ago. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. He clearly can the man stands 65. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Heres a bomb to right-center. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
by Retrosheet. What's With Jason Heyward? | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. Dodgers vs. Angels game thread - True Blue LA When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Home run spike shows Statcast science is more potent than steroids Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Im not going to worry about it.. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Heyward will get paid. The Weakest Positions on National League Contenders Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. The Cubs released Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The No. What are your Gold Glove predictions for this year? : r/baseball by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Perhaps rightfully so. by Handedness. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis.