Switzerland's formerly cash-obsessed citizens are falling out of love with physical money. Information on the company, shares and company reports. Swiss Fall Out of Love With Cash Amid Soul Searching About Money As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. At Savills, our most valuable resource is our people. Our integrity, honesty and professionalism is what gives our clients, colleagues, investors and business partners the confidence to work with us. A paid subscription is required for full access. 5. Spotlight: European Logistics Outlook - February 2022 - Savills European real estate outlook 2023 - Knight Frank Whether buying a townhouse or selling a country cottage, leasing corporate office space or renting farmland, our experts make it their business to understand your needs and help you find the right property. One mitigating factor has been a dramatic shift towards reshoring/nearshoring in the last year. Whether you're planning to sell, rent or are undecided, we have an expert who can help. Take-up in Europe fell by 23 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023. The prime yield of the European logistics market declined by an average of around 7.1 percent compared to prior-year period, whereas rents rose conversely by a modest 2.2 percent. However, rising development costs are likely to temper appetite for development and further support yield compression for standing stock. The average vacancy rate in Europe has fallen by 80 bps in the last 12 months and now stands at 4.6%, which is structurally low by historical standards. Impacts the future of global real estate. However, it has changed slightly. Box 5894,SE-102 40 StockholmDirect: +46 8 463 33 10info@catella.se. In contrast, during the GFC, consumer spending fell by 1.1% in 2009 and 0.8% in 2012. n this context, prime rents continued to increase, +12.2% (y-o-y) in H1 2022 based on 21 countries including 48 markets. Heightened interest rates are also impacting corporate borrowing rates and as rates rise, the impact will become more acute. Further inward yield movement has been witnessed for Prague (-150bps), Stockholm (-30bps) and Madrid (-25 bps) during the first half of the year. European logistics investment reached a record 22.5bn during H1 2021, a 60% increase on the H1 five-year average. These cookies are necessary for the Savills website to function. The staycation concept has extended to holiday clusters between European countries. Based on more than 50 years of real estate expertise, we are present in 23 countries, mainly in Europe. With over 65 bn invested during 2021 in industrial and logistics, the market set a new record compared to last year. In Poland, the market is still thriving despite growing uncertainties in the region. Watch the webcast from the annual results presentation held on 16 March 2022. Find out more about upcoming and past financial events, including results announcements and ex-dividend dates. Over the years we have been recognised as best in class in a diverse range of disciplines. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. The ideal entry-level account for individual users. At a Glance - European Capital Markets - Q2 2021 - BNP Paribas Depending on the country, European government bonds have spiked by 100-200 bps over the last three months. Eurozone unemployment sits at 7.7% in June 2021, which has risen by 120 bps since end-2019 and remains supported by furlough schemes across the majority of European markets. knightfrank.com About Research Library Blog Contact Us Careers My Knight Frank Global Global Meanwhile, the geopolitical instability that has driven energy and commodity price growth has worsened as the year has progressed. Overall, European logistics vacancy rates have fallen by an average of 80 bps over the past 12 months to 4.6%, helped by high levels of take-up in Spain. Prime shopping centre yields widened by 120 bps since 2018. Commercial Research, European Commercial Research In this context, prime rents continued to increase, +12.2% (y-o-y) in H1 2022 based on 21 countries including 48 markets. Take-up rates of warehousing facilities in leading European cities, Rental costs of warehouses in leading European cities, Facebook: quarterly number of MAU (monthly active users) worldwide 2008-2023, Quarterly smartphone market share worldwide by vendor 2009-2023, Number of apps available in leading app stores Q3 2022, Profit from additional features with an Employee Account. We may also use information recorded by these cookies to see how well these adverts are performing. Investor demand remains strong even though the volumes may be challenged by increasing scarcity of stock, geopolitical risk in Central and Eastern Europe and the suppression effect of inflation on consumer demand, analyses Craig Maguire. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. sold 1.41 billion shares . Sector specialists should be well placed to raise capital and take advantage of opportunities as the market shifts. The Covid-related re-pricing did not differentiate between prime and average-quality. We are known for our positive, entrepreneurial culture, and for attracting some of the most innovative, dedicated and knowledgeable people in the business. The occupier market has shown good resilience during H1 2022, despite a difficult political and economic environment. Prime yields remained stable at 4.5% for standard assets but decompression is expected in the forthcoming months given the geopolitical risk in the region and the economic and financial context in Europe. In contrast to retail, European prime logistics yields continue to decrease in most markets. Whilst speculative development is taking place across the continent, many developers are struggling to source concrete, timber, steel, and cladding, which are the key components of any new warehouse. GARBE PYRAMID 2022: Prime Yields of European Logistics Real Estate According to the European Commission, transport currently accounts for a quarter of Europes greenhouse gases and is the main cause of air pollution in cities. However, the ECB has been slower than the Bank of England in terms of rate rises and some EU markets are further behind in their repricing journey. Development activity is not keeping up with demand, constrained by access to labour, rising material costs and supply chain challenges impacting speed of delivery. The manufacturing sector is becoming less dominant due to rising energy prices and CO2 tax prices. Obtaining planning permission for new developments in constrained markets such as Germany and Netherlands has also increased time frames. Updated share price information for Savills Plc from London Stock Exchange. In the last four quarters, vacancy rates have tightened to 6.4% in Madrid (-300 bps), 4.0% in Romania (-250 bps), and 2.6% in the Netherlands in Q3 2022. "Prime yields of industrial and logistics real estate in Europe as of 1st quarter 2022, by country or region." All indicators suggest that this will be another record year of logistics investment for Europe. As our research in the UK shows, transport costs account for a significantly higher share of logistics occupiers operating costs than rent. Frankfurt am Main, 5 June 2023. The traditional food retailers like ALDI and Lidl remain active on high streets and are able to sign for longer-term leases on discounted rents. These measures have been broadly successful, with gas storage surpassing the targeted rate of 80% capacity to stand at 95% in November. Romania (87%), Ireland (37%), and Hungary (15%) saw the highest growth in take-up in the first three quarters compared to the same period last year, while declines were sharpest in Denmark (-40%), Spain (-17%), and France (-14%). It has risen to 139bps at the end of Q4 2022. Slowing trade may reduce occupational demand in the logistics sector as fewer goods move through the economy. This heady mix of ever-increasing occupier demand and low levels of supply leads us to conclude that many rental growth forecasts are underestimating the localised market conditions which ultimately drive rental growth. 2022 European Annual Outlook: Realignment | AEW Examples of this include: setting your privacy preferences, logging in to your Savills account, or filling in forms. Indeed, while Forrester forecasted online retail sales compound annual growth of 12.7% between 2020 and 2025, the expansion is unlikely to continue at this rate, given developments in the economy in the last year. (May 12, 2022). We anticipate rental growth to accelerate again over the next 1218 months, particularly in core markets, driven by undersupply of existing and future stock. Aerotropolis-Airport City. This would be 18% higher than the five-year average, but the final figure is likely to fall short of this level given the deteriorating macroeconomic situation in Q4. Treasury yields rose. While activity was reduced in Q2, it nonetheless remained strong with nearly 1.2 million sqm taken up. Information on upcoming and previous Annual General Meetings. European Logistics Reaching a Turning Point | AEW Prime yields of industrial and logistics real estate in Europe as of 1st quarter 2022, by country or region [Graph]. Notably, inflation will have played a part here, driving up the nominal revenue of goods sold. Updated share price information for Savills Plc from London Stock Exchange. Savills: European logistics investment volumes reached 12.2 billion in Prime yields were flat or on an upward trajectory in most markets this quarter, with the average prime yield for European industrial and logistics assets rising to 4.80% during the first . By Mark Landler. Industrial and logistics Investment volumes in Europe reached over 30bn in H1 2022, another record for a first half. Whether you're planning to sell, rent or are undecided, we have an expert who can help. Show sources information Chart. This statistic is not included in your account. The overall weakening economic situation in Europe will also have an impact. to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. Debt terms remain very buoyant across the sector. Prime European logistics facilities will remain in high demand throughout 2020 as ecommerce growth accelerates, Historically low vacancy rates are insulating rental growth against a cool-down in the occupier market and wider economy. Prime yields compressed by 65% on average in Europe in 2021. Owner-occupiers wishing to raise capital may find borrowing costs prohibitively expensive and may look to offer up their facilities through sale-and-leaseback arrangements as an alternative. Anecdotally, vendors have tended to withdraw from the market entirely rather than transacting at a discount, and the deals that have closed suggest price chips ranging from 1020%. Prime yields were flat or on an upward trajectory in most markets this quarter, with the average prime yield for European industrial and logistics assets rising to 4.80% during the first quarter of this year. The occupier market proved resilient in H1 2022 even though the first signs of slowdown were recorded in Q2. However, the sector remains a key target for real estate investors, with pricing expected to stabilise in the second half of 2023, we expect investment activity to pick up. Higher energy prices have inevitably eroded household disposable incomes, which are forecast to decline by 0.7% YoY in 2022 and 2023 in the EU, and weighed on production, in particular manufacturing output. Learn more about Savills Plc's leadership, corporate governance and sustainability policy. The change in interest rates has led to a disconnect between buyers and sellers. Demand is robust, driven by e-commerce. Savills | European Logistics Outlook - September 2021 T-Mobile US said it isn't in talks to include its wireless plans in Amazon.com's Prime service after a Bloomberg report said Amazon is holding talks . Prime industrial and logistics yields in European countries 2022 - Statista As a result, prime logistics returns for the 2021-25 period are forecast at 8.5% pa in our base case. However, the decline in Dublin was 41 per cent. This suggests that well-located prime stock will remain in high demand, particularly amongst occupiers facing rising fuel costs, seeking to increase fuel efficiencies by reducing average journey distance. Rishi Sunak Is Still Haunted by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss - The New Accessed June 06, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/858167/prime-industrial-yields-by-european-country/, Cushman & Wakefield. In the overall view, there continues to be an impressive market constitution in Europe. If we assume take-up in Q4 stays level with the long-term Q4 average of 8.6m sq m, we would expect overall annual take-up in 2022 to reach 37m sq m, a decline of 7% YoY. Resize. Commercial Research, Commercial Investment Statista. Spreads between prime and secondary yields are now increasing with the number of buyers able or willing to meet vendor expectations for prime assets falling. Europes economies continue to show a positive recovery, with improving GDP growth forecasts, albeit the Delta variant will continue to pose headwinds to the positive momentum. The importance of the information and communication technology (ICT . Despite a pullback in demand from online retailers during the second half of 2022, the growth in online retail will continue to drive demand over the longer term. The average rise for prime logistics centres monitored across Europe was +68bps in 2022 (to 4.88%). Consumer spending growth is a strong indicator of the quantity of goods moving through the economy, which stimulates demand for warehousing to facilitate logistics. The World Trade Organisation expects world trade to lose momentum in H2 2022 and remain muted into 2023 in response to the various shocks affecting the global economy. Information on upcoming and previous Annual General Meetings. Prime yields moved out by 175 bps in the UK (5.00%), 95 bps in Poland (5.2%), 75 bps in the Czech Republic (4.75%), and 75 bps in Spain (4.75%) over the last two quarters. Chinese forwarding companies are among the fastest expanding occupier subgroup, who want to be in close proximity to Amazon hubs or container terminals. Commercial Research, UK & EMEA Logistics Research Analyst Looking forward, record volumes of new capital are being raised and allocated towards logistics each month. This has resulted in shrinking the spread, or premium offered by European industrial real estate relative to bond yields. Watch the webcast from the annual results presentation held on 16 March 2022. On an annual basis, prime office yields have hardened in Oslo by -40bps, London West End, Brussels and Milan by -30bps and Paris and Hamburg by . However, occupier market fundamentals remain strong, with positive rental growth expectations underpinned by a continued demand-supply imbalance. In the absence of a pre-existing oversupply of stock, there is room for an increase in occupiers handing back space due to a stronger-than-forecast downturn without leading to a sharp correction in rents. 01 June 2023, Industrial and Logistics The staycation concept has extended to holiday clusters between European countries. Prime yields of industrial and logistics real estate in European countries Q1 2022 Published by Statista Research Department , Jun 10, 2022 Among the different countries and regions in. The problem for occupiers, however, is supply. Regional Investment Advisory EMEA Omnichannel Group, Commercial Investment In Q2, the market dropped by 16% compared to the previous quarter. After almost a decade of cheap capital, rising interest rates have driven up borrowing costs, leaving the commercial real estate sector to adjust to the growing costs of debt. EUROPEAN LOGISTICS REACHING A TURNING POINT The ECB has signaled a 25-50 bps rate hike in July and September as on the back of the on-going Ukraine conflict, inflation has continued to move up. Dislocations in the market could present opportunities for funds still in their commitment period with funds to be drawn. However, cuts to interest rates would lower the cost of debt and disincentivise saving, allowing households and businesses to increase their consumption and investment. European Research, Associate Director Another trend that drove more intensive use of warehouse space during the pandemic was an acceleration of the shift towards online retail. Commercial Research, Head of EMEA Industrial and Logistics Get the latest business insights from Dun & Bradstreet. Investment flows into industrial assets continue to reflect the strong performance in the occupational market in recent years. Specifically it affects the choice of building in the between location and availability. Our latest edition of Impacts, themed reconnect, explores how real estate is fundamental in helping people and businesses to connect and thrive. We are still seeing some British companies seeking to mitigate the effects of Brexit, as UK exporters now have to pay additional import tariffs on goods exported from Asia to Europe via the UK, driving logistics demand in mainland Europe. There is an acute shortage of new units supporting strong rental growth in the UK. Prime yields. Prime yields of European logistics real estate declined by 7.1% on June 2, 2023 11:55 am ET. To offset this, the EU responded to energy supply pressures with a coordinated approach to reducing demand and shoring up supplies for the winter. The UK occupier market maintained solid dynamics after the exceptional volumes recorded last year. Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France and . Further decompression is expected by the end of the year. Consumer confidence has recovered positively following the pandemic. While they are not vital for the website to run, they allow us to remember important information and your preferences such as previous location searches. Vacancy rates in major European cities have fallen by an average of 80 bps since the start of the year and remain at record-breaking lows. Unlike other European markets, prime yields remained stable but signs of decompression are expected in Q3. The 10-year Eurozone Central Government Bond yield has risen quickly over the past year. Declines in disposable income typically depress demand, which reduced economic activity in Q3 and led to negative revisions to economic growth forecasts, with many economies now expected to fall into recession in the final quarter of 2022. Some 36% of consumer transactions were settled using physical money last year, according to a Swiss . Savills has recorded that average European prime logistics yields compressed 20bps from 4.9% to 4.7% during H1 2019, though generally remained steady for the core markets (Chart 5). See below for further information about the categories of cookies used on our site and your current preference settings. In the Netherlands, the investment market in industrial and logistics maintained good momentum despite a scarcity of products available. Returns are coming under pressure due to softening yields. The downward trend in office prime yields, ongoing for several years, slowed down or halted in most markets in 2020. Key expectations for the European logistics market in 2023 Despite inflationary pressures and economic headwinds, occupier market fundamentals remain strong, with positive rental growth expectations underpinned by a continued demand-supply imbalance. Savills analysis of new capital raised by funds indicates that 39% of the volume of new funds raised in 2021 has been allocated towards the logistics sector, more than any other sector. The changed financing conditions for project developments in this segment, which have been measurable for 9 months now, and the fundamental risk adjustment to the political-economic situation will put further pressure on multipliers or yields. The best of the best: the portal for top lists & rankings: Strategy and business building for the data-driven economy: Industry-specific and extensively researched technical data (partially from exclusive partnerships). Yet prime rents have been stable over the past 3 quarters. This will mean that for the online retail sector alone an additional 26.3m sq m of warehouse space needs to be found. Debt costs are expected to rise further and will continue to restrict activity from investors reliant on leverage as prime logistics yields remain too low to meet the coverage ratios they need. With over 40,000 people working across more than 70 countries around the world, we'll always have an expert who is local to you. In this scenario, as economic turmoil abates and the European economy returns to growth, the pre-existing supply issues will have intensified, driving sharp rental growth as occupiers look to expand their footprints in response to rising demand. Catella is a leading specialist in property investments with operations in 12 countries. Registered office: 33 Margaret Street, London, W1G 0JD. Vacancy rates are still low, particularly in Barcelona at around 2.5% and 6% in Madrid. Take-up in Q1 reached 1.8 million sqm fuelled by the structural growth of e-commerce and supply chains. Despite inflationary pressures and economic headwinds, occupier market fundamentals remain strong, with positive rental growth expectations underpinned by a continued demand-supply imbalance. Up-to-the-minute news from our press teams providing the latest developments within Savills, and across the property industry. Portfolio premiums of between 515% are now being achieved on portfolios that allow investors to deploy large amounts of equity in a single transaction, such is the volume of frustrated capital seeking to gain exposure to the sector. In line with trends in take-up, H1 investment volumes were the primary driver of this years strong performance. Though these cookies cannot be switched off, you can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but please be aware that this will stop some parts of the Savills website from functioning as intended. With debt-financed buyers priced out of the market, cash buyers may be able to pursue opportunities where they present themselves, but with yields rising in Q3, we would expect those who can adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Savills offers a wide range of specialist services from financial and investment advice to valuation, planning and property management. Our latest edition of Impacts, themed reconnect, explores how real estate is fundamental in helping people and businesses to connect and thrive. Growth will remain with increased risk provisioning on the part of investors. H1 2021 European logistics investment volumes are already 64% of the record full-year 2020, and the UK accounted for 37% of overall deal volumes, above the five-year average of 30%. For more market-leading research, expert opinions and forecasts, sign up to our newsletters below. Taking London as an example, where vacancy has remained close to 2% for the last decade and occupier demand has risen sharply due to ever-increasing growth in online retail, shows that since 2010, rents have increased by 58%. DIC Asset AG ("DIC"), ISIN: DE000A1X3XX4, one of Germany's leading listed property companies, announced that its "Circumflex" logistics centre in the Dutch town of Almelo, one of the country's logistics hubs, was completed on schedule. Indeed, the record-breaking YTD take-up in Q3 2022 was almost entirely a result of the exceptional take-up numbers from H1. The prime yield started to decompress at 3.15% in the Netherlands and stabilized at 3.6% in Venlo and 4% in Rotterdam. This was driven by falls in Finland (-4.4%) and the Netherlands (averaging -3.8%). 30,000 crore at current exchange rates) and create 4,000 to 5,000 jobs in the highly skilled area. The vacancy rate is still low, at around 3%. Turning any of these cookies off may affect your experience of the site. European prime logistics . The vacancy rate is at its lowest ever, below 4% on average in Europe, whilst rising inflation is impacting construction and material costs. While negative economic sentiment has risen significantly as the year progressed, it is worth considering the overall economic outlook as it stands. In Poland, following a record volume last year, activity slowed down in H1 2022. In September, Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom announced that its exports to the non-Commonwealth of Independent States (e.g., Europe) had fallen by 38.8% YoY, which has applied upward pressure on commodity prices. Priorities and preferences have changed, but people across the world are reconnecting. Many occupiers have already sought to secure their supply chains by reshoring and stocking up on inventory. Tenants are no longer being offered renewal options as landlords test the market for the anticipated 45% pa rental growth. | Think Logistics, Think Porter - Anything, Anywhere, Anytime - Delivery hai? If inflation does persist, it will continue to erode household incomes which will in turn impact demand, particularly for larger purchases. Savills plc is focused on climate-related risks and working together with its clients, suppliers and the local communities to deliver a more sustainable future. download pdf OVERVIEW Industrial real estate supports one of the most vital components of the global economy today - logistics. Although the yields are softening across Europe, they remain well below those recorded pre-pandemic; 5.57% (Q3 2018) and 5.04% (Q3 2019).
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